[Objective] Taken the Linjiang tourism as an example, tourism forecast system was established, difficulties related to the work of tourist area were solved. [Method] Dynamic predicted response model of Lijiang tourism market was established, through the gray correlation model GM (1, 1) and time-series method, using a computer simulation program for the actual model of operation, Lijiang tourism prospects were predicted and predicting results were evaluated. [Result] Total revenue of model gray parameter of Lijiang tourism a= 0.572 3 from 2009 to 2011, internal control parameters u=0.393 7, x(t+1) =-0.563 3exp(-0.572 3t)+0.688 0; total reception numbers of model gray parameter of Lijiang tourism a = 0.125 6, internal control parameters u = 344. 326 0, x(t+1)=3 102.483 5 exp(0.125 6 t)-2 741.283 5. Test results of two models showed that fitting degrees were good, and at the same time predicted that total revenue of Lijiang tourism reached 13 000 000 000, and total reception numbers reached 8 800 000. [Conclusion] This predicted system can carry out precision forecast for other tourist areas when cannot get all the information.
Starting from the utilization and protection of local knowledge, with the performance prism as the framework, the evaluation index system of tourist satisfaction degree was established. The weight was determined by using AHP method. Finally, the investigating result was judged with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the evaluation model of tourist satisfaction degree in western tourist area was built, and the case study was carried out. With Lijiang in Yunnan Province as example, according to AHP method, five dimensions weight of the performance prism, various KPI weight and consistency were obtained, fuzzy evaluation on tourist satisfaction degree was conducted. The results showed that the overall was satisfactory, but there were still some problems. Aiming at the utilization and protection of local knowledge, some corresponding countermeasures were put forward which will benefit for further development of tourism in Lijiang of Yunnan Province.
