In this paper, we applied the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, i.e. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios, to investigating the change of the East Asian climate in the last three decades of the 21st century with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. The global warming enlarges the land-sea thermal contrast and, hence, enhances (reduces) the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation. The precipitation from the Yangtze and Huaihe river valley to North China increases significantly. In particular, the strong rainfall increase over North China implies that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward. In addition, from the southeastern coastal area to North China, the rainfall would increase significantly in September, implying that the rainy period of the East Asian monsoon would be prolonged about one month. In July, August and September, the interannual variability of the precipitation enhances evidently over North China, meaning a risk of flooding in the future.
BUEH Cholaw LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
The understanding of the cloud processes of snowfall is essential to the artificial enhancement of snow and the numerical simulation of snowfall. The mesoscale model MM5 is used to simulate a moderate snowfall event in North China that occurred during 20-21 December 2002. Thirteen experiments are performed to test the sensitivity of the simulation to the cloud physics with different cumulus parameterization schemes and different options for the Goddard cloud microphysics parameterization schemes. It is shown that the cumulus parameterization scheme has little to do with the simulation result. The results also show that there are only four classes of water substances, namely the cloud water, cloud ice, snow, and vapor, in the simulation of the moderate snowfall event. The analysis of the cloud microphysics budgets in the explicit experiment shows that the condensation of supersaturated vapor, the depositional growth of cloud ice, the initiation of cloud ice, the accretion of cloud ice by snow, the accretion of cloud water by snow, the deposition growth of snow, and the Bergeron process of cloud ice are the dominant cloud microphysical processes in the simulation. The accretion of cloud water by snow and the deposition growth of the snow are equally important in the development of the snow.
