Considering the uncertain effects of temporal and spatial changes in the marine en- vironment on the underwater acoustic environment, we established an ocean-acoustic coupled numerical model and performed a parallel calculation. This model incorporated acoustic calcu- lations into the dynamic ocean, thereby achieving a dynamic forecasting and assessment of the acoustic environment. Furthermore, we adopted the ensemble prediction method to predict the vertical structure of temperature in a classic cross-section, the sound speed of the cross-section of the investigated sea area, and transmission losses. We gave the prediction errors of the sound speed profile as well as the 90% probability interval of transmission losses and the uncertainty histograms of the sound speeds, transmission losses, and sonar ranges at different depths and frequencies. The results reflected the influence of marine temporal and spacial variations on the uncertainties of the underwater acoustic environment, and the results also quantified the uncertainties of the underwater acoustic environment parameters. The experimental results indicate that the method used in this study is able to delineate and quantify the uncertainties of the underwater acoustic environment caused by marine dynamic changes.
地声参数的不确定性对水声传播具有重要的影响。通过贝叶斯理论建立水声环境不确定性推理模型,理论推导了地声参数的似然函数以及地声参数和传播损失的后验概率密度,并采用MCMC(Markov Chain Monte Carlo)进行了仿真计算,给出了地声参数的二维后验联合概率密度和一维边缘概率密度,在此基础上对传播损失的不确定性进行了估计,得到了传播损失80%的可信区间。仿真和实验结果表明,该方法适用于地声参数反演和不确定性估计,并能获取因地声参数不确定性导致的传播损失不确定性估计。
