利用基于时-空传染型余震序列(Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence,简称ETAS)模型的随机除丛法,重新审视了2008年5月12日汶川M_S8.0地震前可能存在的长期地震活动异常,研究了川滇地区背景地震活动特征,并评估了当前的强震危险状态.对川滇地区1 970年以来的M_L3.0以上的背景地震和丛集地震活动的研究结果表明,该地区地震丛集特征明显、时空分布很不均匀、地震序列常有前震事件.直接将概率值作为地震计数的权重,对地震丛集率空间分布图像分析表明,汶川M_S8.0地震前,龙门山断裂带中南段存在着长期、大范围的地震丛集率低值区,震前该段处于应力闭锁状态.对川滇地区地震从集率低值区内背景地震与全部地震的累积次数、b值和新定义的Δb等统计参量的分析表明,龙日坝与龙门山断裂带具有地震活动的关联性,川滇地区当前的强震潜在危险区可能是巧家地区和汶川M_S8.0地震破裂尚未穿越的龙门山断裂带南段.此外,还发现b值倾向于反映局部应力场变化,而△b能较为敏感地给出更大范围应力场的相对变化.
Characteristics of seismic activity before the M5. 1 earthquake in Wen＇an, Hebei Province on July 4, 2006 are analyzed by relocation of small earthquakes in the China＇s capital area, and some results are obtained as follows：① The seismic activity of ML ≥ 3.0 in the middle part of the Hebei plain seismic belt displayed a feature of strengthening （ lasting 43 months） quiescence （17 months） five years before the Wen＇an earthquake. Simultaneously, the strain release curve showed a variation process of accelerating-flatting. ② A seismogenic gap in a three-dimensional space, located at the depth of 15km - 20km, with 70km long in latitude direction and 90km long in longitude orientation, was formed by M≥2.0 earthquakes four years prior to the Wen＇an earthquake. The initial rupture point of the Wen＇an earthquake is situated at the bottom of the gap. ③ The focal depths of earthquakes with ML ≥ 2. 0 in the middle part of the Hebei plain seismic belt gradually increased from 10km to 30kin during the period from April, 2003 to October, 2004. Meanwhile, the seismic activity obviously strengthened in the middle and lower crust （from 20km to 30km in depth）.
