Anomalous warming occurred in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific in early May 2014, attracting much attention to the possible occurrence of an extreme E1 Nifio event that year because of its similarity to the situation in early 1997. However, the subsequent variation in sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） during summer 2014 in the tropical Pacific was evidently different to that in 1997, but somewhat similar to the situation of the 1990 aborted E1 Nifio event. Based on NCEP （National Centers for Environmental Prediction） oceanic and atmospheric reanalysis data, the physical processes responsible for the strength of E1 Nifio events are examined by comparing the dominant factors in 2014 in terms of the preceding instability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system and westerly wind bursts （WWBs） with those in 1997 and 1990, separately. Although the unstable ocean-atmosphere system formed over the tropical Pacific in the preceding winter of 2014, the strength of the preceding instability was relatively weak. Weak oceanic eastward-propagating downwelling Kelvin waves were forced by the weak WWBs over the equatorial western Pacific in March 2014, as in February 1990. The consequent positive upper-oceanic heat content anomalies in the spring of 2014 induced only weak positive SSTAs in the central-eastern Pacific-unfavorable for the subsequent generation of summertime WWB sequences. Moreover, the equatorial western Pacific was not cooled, indicating the absence of positive Bjerknes feedback in early summer 2014. Therefore, the development of E1 Nifio was suspended in summer 2014.
Based on 6-hourly sensible heat flux and latent heat flux from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis(CFSR) and circulation data from the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis(JRA-25),the initial developing process of tropical cyclone Mindulle(1005) in 2010 has been diagnosed to reveal the impact of air-sea interaction over the South China Sea(SCS) on the genesis of its incipient vortex.The results show that the incipient vortex first occurred east of the Luzon Island on 0000 UTC 20 August,suggesting that the topographic forcing of the Luzon Island for easterly winds over the western Pacific might be one of the factors responsible for the formation of the incipient vortex.During the formation stage of the incipient vortex,strong southeasterlies over the SCS caused warm water of the middle and eastern SCS to flow toward the Luzon Island due to Ekman transport resulting from wind stress,leading to an increase of the sea surface temperature and sensible heat flux into the atmosphere.Although the anomalous sensible heating favored surface pressure to reduce,it was not conducive to the increase of local vorticity associated with the vortex above the heating area because,according to the atmospheric thermal adaptation theory,the anticyclonic vorticity would be created in the lower troposphere due to the decreased vertical gradient of the sensible heating.However,the ascending motions occurred over the eastern area of the anomalous sensible heating due to the augmentation of the vorticity advection with increasing height,causing water vapor to condense in the middle and upper troposphere.In turn,cyclonic vorticity was generated in the lower troposphere due to the increased vertical gradient of the condensation latent heating,resulting in the formation and further growth of the incipient vortex.Therefore,the vorticity creation due to the condensation heating played a dominant role during the subsequent enhancing stage of the incipient vortex.
Using a new global ocean reanalysis of the second generation Global Ocean Data Assimilation System of the Beijing Climate Center(BCC_GODAS2.0) spanning the period 1990-2009,we firstly quantify the accuracy of BCC_GODAS2.0 in representing the temperature and salinity by comparing with OISST and SODA data.The results show that the assimilation system may effectively improve the estimations of temperature and salinity by assimilating all kinds of observations,especially in the equatorial eastern Pacific.Moreover,the root mean square errors of monthly temperature and salinity are respectively reduced by 0.53℃ and 0.28 psu,compared with the model control simulation results.Then,the applicability of this ocean reanalysis for sea surface temperature(SST) anomaly variability in the tropical Pacific is evaluated with the observational HadISST data.The NINO3 index of the new reanalysis shows a good agreement with that of HadISST,with a correlation of 93.6%.Variations in SST from BCC_GODAS2.0 are similar to those obtained from HadISST data along the equator,showing the major large zonal-scale features such as the strong magnitude of seasonal cycle.The amplitude of SST anomaly standard deviation in the equatorial eastern Pacific is also closer to observations(HadISST) than NCEP GODAS does.Besides,the first two leading empirical orthogonal function(EOF) modes of the monthly SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific region are explored.The EOF1 pattern of BCC_GODAS2.0 captures a traditional El Ni o pattern,which improves magnitudes of the positive SST anomaly in the cold tongue of the eastern Pacific.The EOF2 pattern exhibits a El Ni o Modoki pattern.Comparatively,the EOF2 pattern of BCC_GODAS2.0 extends more strongly toward the subtropics.It also overcomes the problem that negative loadings are confined in the narrow equatorial eastern Pacific.Consequently,the magnitude and spatial distribution of the leading EOF patterns of BCC_GODAS2.0 are well consistent with those of HadISST.
WANG DongXiaoQIN YingHaoXIAO XianJunZHANG ZuQiangWU FengMin
