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国家重点基础研究发展计划(2010CB950401)

作品数:19 被引量:194H指数:7
相关作者:李崇银江志红刘征宇潘静管玉平更多>>
相关机构:中国科学院大气物理研究所解放军理工大学中国科学院更多>>
发文基金:国家重点基础研究发展计划国家自然科学基金公益性行业(气象)科研专项更多>>
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登陆我国大陆热带气旋的纬度分布特征被引量:6
2012年
登陆点位置是热带气旋研究的重要课题.为消除因资料单一产生的误差,本文采用1951—2010年中国、美国、日本三套热带气旋最佳路径资料,分析了登陆我国大陆热带气旋频数的年际变化规律,并研究了登陆纬度的分布和变化特征.本文以总结三套资料一致反映的现象为主,得到以下一些有意义的结果:从总体上看,中国资料集内的登陆频数比其他两套资料平均每年约多1个.1970年后三套资料的登陆频数基本保持不变,登陆纬度有较一致的北移,而1970年前两者在三套资料内的变化不太一致.从单位纬度登陆频数上看,登陆数绝大部分集中在北纬30°以下,且总体上随纬度增加而减少,其中北纬21°—23°登陆数偏多,北纬20°—21°和北纬23°—24°登陆数偏少.
张翰管玉平
关键词:热带气旋年际变化
基于拉格朗日方法的江淮梅雨水汽输送特征分析被引量:77
2013年
利用NCEP再分析资料,引入基于拉格朗日方法的气流轨迹模式(HYSPLITv4.9),结合用于海量轨迹分析的气块追踪分析方法,探讨了江淮梅雨气候平均的水汽输送特征以及梅雨异常年水汽输送的差异。结果表明,在气候态下,江淮梅雨的水汽主要来自印度洋、孟加拉湾—中国南海、太平洋和欧亚大陆4个区域,其对江淮梅雨的水汽输送贡献分别为35%、19%、22%和19%。其中,印度洋、孟加拉湾—中国南海和太平洋上的输送气流主要来自850 hPa以下的对流层低层,而欧亚大陆的输送气流主要来自600 hPa左右的对流层中层。进一步对比梅雨异常年水汽输送的差异,发现孟加拉湾—中国南海、太平洋和印度洋的水汽输送对江淮梅雨的异常有重要影响,梅雨偏多年来自孟加拉湾—中国南海的水汽输送较多,其对江淮梅雨的水汽输送贡献为24%,比梅雨偏少年约增加了13%,梅雨偏少年则是来自太平洋和印度洋的水汽输送较多,对江淮梅雨的水汽输送贡献分别达到了40%和30%,比梅雨偏多年约增加了5%和10%。
江志红任伟刘征宇杨浩
关键词:江淮梅雨水汽输送
IMPACTS OF MONTHLY ANOMALIES OF INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION OVER SOUTH CHINA SEA AND SOUTH ASIA ON THE ACTIVITY OF SUMMER MONSOON AND RAINFALL IN EASTERN CHINA被引量:2
2016年
The impact of strong(weak) intraseasonal oscillation(ISO) over South China Sea(SCS) and South Asia(SA)in summer on the SCS and SA summer monsoon and the summer rainfall in Eastern China are studied by using the NCEP-NCAR analysis data and the rainfall data of 160 stations in China from 1961 to 2010.It is found that the impacts are significantly different in different months of summer.The study shows that in June and July cyclonic(anticyclonic) atmospheric circulation over SCS and SA corresponds to strong(weak) ISO over SCS.In August,however,strong(weak) ISO over SCS still corresponds to cyclonic(anticyclonic) atmospheric circulation over SA.In June and August cyclonic(anticyclonic) atmospheric circulation over South Asia corresponds to strong(weak) ISO over SA while a strong(weak) ISO corresponds to anticyclonic(cyclonic) atmospheric circulation over SA in July.Besides,in June the strong(weak) ISO over SA corresponds to cyclonic(anticyclonic) atmospheric circulation over SCS,while in July and August the atmospheric circulation is in the same phase regardless of whether the ISO over SA is strong or weak.The impacts of the strong(weak)ISO over SCS on the rainfall of eastern China are similar in June and July,which favors less(more) rainfall in Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers basin but sufficient(deficient) rainfall in the south of Yangtze River.However,the impacts are not so apparent in August.In South Asia,the strong(weak) ISO in July results in less(more)rainfall in the south of Yangtze River but sufficient(deficient) rainfall in Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers basin.The influence on the rainfall in eastern China in June and August is not as significant as in July.
阙志萍吴凡毕晨龙余良李崇银
关键词:RAINFALL
西北太平洋台风活动与大气季节内振荡被引量:29
2012年
本文综合介绍了大气季节内振荡与西北太平洋台风活动关系的最新研究结果。主要内容是:大气MJO的活动对西北太平洋台风的生成有比较明显的调制作用,在MJO的活跃期与非活跃期西北太平洋生成台风数的比例为2:1;而在MJO活跃期,对流中心位于赤道东印度洋(即MJO第2~3位相)与对流中心在西太平洋地区(即MJO第5~6位相)时的比例也为2:1。在MJO的不同位相,西太平洋地区的动力因子和热源分布形势有很明显不同。在第2~3位相,各种因子均呈现出抑制西太平洋地区对流及台风发展的态势;而在第5~6位相则明显促进对流的发生发展。这说明MJO在不断东移的过程中,将影响和改变大气环流形势,最终影响台风的生成。对多台风年与少台风年850 hPa的30~60 d低频动能距平合成分析表明,在多台风年有两个低频动能的大值区,其中最显著的是低频动能正异常位于菲律宾以东15°N以南的西北太平洋地区,此区域正好为季风槽所在的位置。而少台风年的情况与多台风年相反,从阿拉伯海东部经印度半岛、孟加拉湾一直到我国南海地区,都是低频动能的大值区,最大的低频动能中心位于印度半岛和我国南海南部;而菲律宾以东的西北太平洋是低频动能的负距平区,季风槽偏弱,对台风生成发展不利。200 hPa速度势场清楚表明,多台风年(少台风年)在菲律宾以东的西北太平洋上表现为高层辐散(辐合),增强(减弱)该地区的上升气流,有利于(不利于)台风的生成。大气季节内振荡(ISO)对西北太平洋台风路径影响的研究表明,大气ISO)流场对台风路径预报有重要参考意义。其结果表明,台风生成时850 hPa低频气旋(LFC)的正涡度带(特别是最大正涡度线)走向往往预示着台风的未来走向;200 hPa的低频环流形势对台风的路径也有一定的指示作用,与200 hPa低频反气旋(LFAC)相联系的200 hPa强低频气流对台风�
李崇银潘静田华杨辉
关键词:MJO台风路径
东亚大气环流由冬向夏的转变时间及其特征被引量:15
2010年
利用NCEP/NCAR再分析数据集及CMAP降水资料分析了东亚大气环流由冬转夏的可能时间及其特征。结果表明,3月底4月初,东亚与西太平洋对流层纬向热力差异由东暖西冷转为东冷西暖,对流层低层大陆高压东移,使得纬向气压梯度发生逆转。与此同时,对流层低层偏南风建立,经向垂直环流也发生季节逆转。同时,3月底4月初华南已出现持续性降水雨带。所有这些特征都表明东亚大气环流可能在3月底4月初已经由冬季型开始转为夏季型。
何金海祁莉刘丹妮朱占云
关键词:东亚大气环流东亚副热带季风
Low-Frequency Vortex Pair over the Tropical Eastern Indian Ocean and the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset被引量:1
2011年
In this paper,the relationship between a pair of low-frequency vortexes over the equatorial Indian Ocean and the South China Sea(SCS) summer monsoon onset is studied based on a multi-year(1980-2003) analysis.A pair of vortexes symmetric about the equator is an important feature prior to the SCS summer monsoon onset.A composite analysis shows that the life cycle of the pair of vortexes is closely associated with the SCS summer monsoon onset.The westerly between the twin cyclones is an important factor to the SCS summer monsoon onset process.
PAN JingLI Chong-Yin
Barotropic Process Contributing to the Formation and Growth of Tropical Cyclone Nargis被引量:6
2011年
This study reveals the barotropic dynamics associated with the formation and growth of tropical cyclone Nargis in 2008,during its formation stage.Strong equatorial westerlies occurred over the southern Bay of Bengal in association with the arrival of an intraseasonal westerly event during the period 22-24 April 2008. The westerlies,together with strong tropical-subtropical easterlies,constituted a large-scale horizontal shear flow,creating cyclonic vorticity and thereby promoting the incipient disturbance that eventually evolved into Nargis.This basic zonal flow in the lower troposphere was barotropically unstable,with the amplified disturbance gaining more kinetic energy from the easterly jet than from the westerly jet during 25-26 April. This finding suggests that more attention should be paid to the unstable easterly jet when monitoring and predicting the development of tropical cyclones.Energetics analyses reveal that barotropic energy conversion by the meridional gradient of the basic zonal flow was indeed an important energy source for the growth of Nargis.
毛江玉吴国雄
An Ocean Data Assimilation System in the Indian Ocean and West Pacific Ocean被引量:4
2015年
The development and application of a regional ocean data assimilation system are among the aims of the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment. The ocean data assimilation system in the regions including the Indian and West Pacific oceans is an endeavor motivated by this goal. In this study, we describe the system in detail. Moreover, the reanalysis in the joint area of Asia, the Indian Ocean, and the western Pacific Ocean (hereafter AIPOcean) constructed using multi-year model integration with data assimilation is used to test the performance of this system. The ocean model is an eddy-resolving, hybrid coordinate ocean model. Various types of observations including in-situ temperature and salinity profiles (mechanical bathythermograph, expendable bathythermograph, Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography, Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Array, conductivity-temperature-depth, station data), remotely-sensed sea surface temperature, and altimetry sea level anomalies, are assimilated into the reanalysis via the ensemble optimal interpolation method. An ensemble of model states sampled from a long-term integration is allowed to change with season, rather than remaining stationary. The estimated background error covariance matrix may reasonably reflect the seasonality and anisotropy. We evaluate the performance of AIPOcean during the period 1993-2006 by comparisons with independent observations, and some reanalysis products. We show that AIPOcean reduces the errors of subsurface temperature and salinity, and reproduces mesoscale eddies. In contrast to ECCO and SODA products, AIPOcean captures the interannual variability and linear trend of sea level anomalies very well. AIPOcean also shows a good consistency with tide gauges.
YAN ChangxiangZHU JiangXIE Jiping
关键词:REANALYSIS
南海三维动态温盐场重构系统的设计与实现被引量:8
2013年
文中利用海面温度和高度的卫星遥感数据,结合实测温、盐剖面数据,运用多种统计分析和数据同化方法,构建了南海海域动态三维温盐场。通过与实测独立样本温盐数据比较发现,构建的动态温盐场与实测温盐场吻合性较好。为了使其投入业务化运行,利用MATLAB平台开发研制了一套南海海域三维动态温盐场构建系统的人机交互软件,通过该软件简洁的界面操作,可以方便地构建海洋各标准层上空间分辨率为0.25°×0.25°的准实时(时间滞后约1—2d)的南海海域三维温盐场,同时实现了混合层深度、海水密度、声速等关键海洋环境参数的计算、查询及分析等功能,对保护南海权益、保障南海船只安全具有重要实用价值。
毛庆文储小青严幼芳齐义泉王东晓龚建忠蔡东明吴忠鼎潘长明
Observational Zonal Mean Flow Anomalies:Vacillation or Poleward Propagation?
2013年
North-south displacements and meridional vacillations of the eddy-driven jet are widely accepted as the dominant cause of variability of the observational zonal-mean zonal wind anomalies(denoted [u]').In this study,a new idea regarding the primary variability of the observational [u]' in the middle latitude troposphere is presented.It is hypothesized that there are two different classes of primary variability of the observational [u]':the poleward propagation of the [u]'(abbreviated as PP) and meridional vacillations.To validate this hypothesis,one-point correlation maps of [u]' at 200-hPa during the boreal cold season(November-April) of every year from 1957-2002 are used as a criterion.Twelve PP years,in which the PP events are dominant in the variability of [u]',and 15 no_PP years,in which the PP events are recessive and the meridional vacillations are dominant in the variability of [u]',are examined.The results show that the variabilities of [u]' are different in the chosen PP and no_PP years.In the PP years,the PP events dominate the variability of [u]';however,the meridional vacillations are prevalent in the no_PP years.
SONG Jie
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