网络小道消息的发生过程,实际上是各参与主体在不完全信息下的动态博弈过程。本文以政府和网民为博弈参与主体,首先建立静态博弈模型进行初步分析,其次采用贝叶斯法则对博弈参与主体的行为和策略进行深入分析。研究发现,网络小道消息的模糊性与迷惑性对公众认知和社会稳定构成显著威胁。基于此,提出构建数字化与智能化监管体系,强化协同治理;增强政府决策透明度,满足公众信息需求;关注公众心理变化,强化舆情引导与心理疏导。The occurrence process of network grapevine is actually a dynamic game process of each participant under incomplete information. This paper takes the government and netizens as the game participants, first established a static game model for preliminary analysis, and then used Bayes’ rule to conduct in-depth analysis of the behavior and strategy of the game participants. It is found that the vagueness and confusion of the network grapevine pose a significant threat to public cognition and social stability. Based on this, it is proposed to build a digital and intelligent supervision system to strengthen collaborative governance;enhance the transparency of government decision-making to meet the public’s demand for information;pay attention to changes in the public mind and strengthen public opinion guidance and psychological counseling.
